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I have better ideas in San Francisco

I have better ideas in San Francisco

I loved walking home in New York. I’d start from my office in Union Square and make my way through the crowds of the day - a farmers market or a protest or a flock of pigeons. I’d say No to people asking if I’d like a

Mondays are the best

Mondays are the best

Early mornings are the best. When it's still dark outside, when Slack is quiet, when the house is still, a thick feeling of brilliance and superiority fills the air. Mondays are the early mornings of the week. Everything is full of potential. The todo list is aspirational. Nothing has gone

SF is part of my karass

SF is part of my karass

A karass in the religion of Bokononism (from Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle) refers to a club of people tangled up together in the universe. A karass crosses national, institutional, occupational, familial, and class boundaries. By the third or fourth time I cross somebody's path, I start to wonder if the

"It's a terrible thing that we made"

"It's a terrible thing that we made"

Richard Feynman's wife died on June 16, 1945. He got the call saying her condition was deteriorating, borrowed a car to drive the 100 miles from Los Alamos back to Albuquerque, and made it to her bedside. Barely. After she passed, he went for a walk near the hospital. He

It’s good when things are bad

It’s good when things are bad

I mentioned the “We’ll See…” Fable1 to a friend at Friday Coffee this morning. He immediately raised his mug for a cheers. “Brother I love that fable.” The status quo never stays. Bad things don’t last forever. Good things don’t last forever. This has been so universally

Spring!

Spring!

Yesterday, I woke up, hopped on a Citi bike, and rode to the gym. It took 5 minutes. The gym was so crowded I left and walked to Joe & The Juice back by my apartment. I don’t like Joe & The Juice. But I do like their laptop policy. After

AI vs. AGI vs. Consciousness vs. Super-intelligence vs. Agency

AI vs. AGI vs. Consciousness vs. Super-intelligence vs. Agency

GPT-4 surpasses all sane definitions of “Artificial General Intelligence.” AI (without the “G”) is a fancy way of saying machine learning - finding patterns within giant datasets in order to solve a single problem. E.g. analyzing billions of interstate driving miles to build Autopilot, billions of

Fragile passengers

Fragile passengers

I tolerate longer lines when buying coffee than I do when going through the airport. Why? I got a push notification at 5:15 this morning on the dot: “Your Lyft has arrived. Gabe will wait for 5 minutes.” Right on time. We crossed town, and then crossed the Williamsburg

Will training data matter anymore for self-driving cars?

Will training data matter anymore for self-driving cars?

The coolest thing about these new LLM’s is their ability to handle few-shot learning. Give it a few examples, and GPT-3 will extrapolate that out to whatever else you throw its way. There’s no need for hundreds of thousands of pieces of training data just to classify a

Two things have changed since 1990

Two things have changed since 1990

I was born in 1990. Two things have changed since then: 1. Water fountains 2. Lightbulbs A couple years ago, I landed in Albuquerque en route to Taos. The jet bridge from the Southwest plane to the terminal was a time machine to the 1990’s. Every store logo had

What’s in and out for 2023

What’s in and out for 2023

I made this list on New Year’s Eve. So far, so good. In * 1pm-9pm eating window * Bill’s Pizza Night every week * Daily writing * AI * Sunday tea * Fewer todos * Short sprints instead of long jogs Out * Scrolling in bed * Scrolling in general * Fake deadlines * Deli meat

My experience Wednesday in SF

My experience Wednesday in SF

It’s pouring rain. I take the Bart to Fidi. Everybody on the train is wearing a mask. As we roll to a stop at Embarcadero, the train loses power. We wait “for the generator to come on so we can open the doors.” Finally outside, I pass 10 people

I forgot my laptop

I forgot my laptop

I got home and unzipped my backpack. My laptop wasn’t in its padded pocket. I fired up Find My… and there it was, pulsing on the map, at Park and 17th about 1.5 miles away. My first reaction was to panic. How am I going to provision these

My Kindle is dead

My Kindle is dead

I ordered a paperback book from Amazon last night. The last book I ordered was a paperback, too. So was the one before that. In every dimension, the Kindle is better. It’s slimmer, lighter, holds thousands of books, syncs to the computer, has a built-in dictionary, simplifies highlighting, and

Decentralization is a narrative mirage.

Decentralization is a narrative mirage.

Technology is a concentrating force. It always has been. Everybody sewed their own clothes until we built textile factories. It used to take one farmer to feed four people. Now each farmer feeds 130 people. Home Depot killed thousands of local hardware stores. Opendoor is replacing legions of Kel

Dark and dirty dorm rooms

Dark and dirty dorm rooms

It’s endearing how college kids abbreviate everything. “How’s that prof?” “Meet you in the caf.” “Skirt skirt.” I lived on “Lup 7” in college. There were 16 of us crammed like sardines in cinderblock cans at the end of the hall. Two to a room. One Thursday, I

Four years ago

Four years ago

Four years ago, I was in Nashville at a friend’s house, eating shrimp, drinking Bud Light. The election was called not long after we finished dinner. I remember thinking even Trump looked surprised. Sam and I walked back to our house on the other side of 12th South. It

Inside every brown take-out bag…

Inside every brown take-out bag…

“I wanted Uber Eats because it was raining. But didn’t end up ordering because it was raining.” - Recent text from a friend Paying for somebody to deliver burgers and fries usually feels fine. They could decline the gig if the price isn’t fair. But when you’re

Acting like a Github recruiter

Acting like a Github recruiter

I interrupt the highly irregular but continually aspirational drip of daily Second Breakfast prose to briefly act like one of those recruiters who scrapes your email off Github. Two things. 1. We’re looking for a Rails developer who can contribute about 60 hours/month to help us ship an

Radio, SF, and cultural stopgaps

Radio, SF, and cultural stopgaps

Growing up, I remember “Save Public Radio” stickers all over the place. Beanie-wearing hipsters would sip lattes and bemoan the iPod’s war on radio. There were petitions for grants to keep WBHM’s lights on. But radio is a tiny blip in the history of music. Ancient Rome had

Can I smell as well as a bloodhound?

Can I smell as well as a bloodhound?

Bloodhounds can smell whether or not a human has merely touched a Coke bottle. When Richard Feynman discovered this fact in a Science article, he decided to try it himself. He handed his wife a six-pack and told her to handle one of the bottles for a couple minutes while

Tailwind saved me from a coding ice age

Tailwind saved me from a coding ice age

I started programming a decade ago. I’ve gone through four distinct coding phases. PHP: the Jurassic beginning In high school, I had an idea for a group texting app. I wanted to assign phone numbers to groups of friends, and then whenever anybody in the group texted the number,

Bierstadt and breakfast

Bierstadt and breakfast

Mt. Bierstadt is the closest 14’er to Denver. It’s also one of the easiest to climb. The parking lot was full at 9am. Cars were spilling out, parked on both sides of the road for a quarter mile in each direction. The trailhead sits at 11,600 feet.

Big vision, little start

Big vision, little start

Elon gets credit for creating huge, new markets. But all of his companies started with existing markets. SpaceX Start: Put satellites in orbit Someday: Colonize Mars Tesla Start: Make an electric McLaren for people with private jets Someday: Electrify transportation The Boring Company Start: Move

Avoiding a bad day

Avoiding a bad day

If I do any of these things, I have a bad day: 1. Hit snooze 2. Scroll Twitter before getting out of bed 3. Fail to chug water in the morning 4. Do 0 push-ups before noon 5. Open twitter.com when opening new tabs 6. Watch YouTube videos 7.

2020 > 1924

2020 > 1924

Munger often says that, for a white guy with a math brain, there wasn’t a better time or place to be born than in 1920’s Nebraska. I strongly disagree. No doubt, Munger had impeccable timing. The concept of putting money into a 401k and expecting to buy a

The Needles, Canyonlands

The Needles, Canyonlands

The West still feels wild. America’s interior has only recently been fully explored. The canyons of the Colorado River were unmapped until John Wesley Powell’s expedition in 1869. He floated from Wyoming to Nevada, passing through what is now Canyonlands National Park in Utah. Ten people started t

To the next chapter

To the next chapter

Yesterday, the movers showed up at 9:15am. Our apartment was empty by 1pm. We loaded up the Subaru and started driving up I-80. Goodbye, San Francisco. The air quality index was “Dangerous” when we went to bed near Squaw Valley’s mountain base last night. The air cleared up

Unlearning school

Unlearning school

It’s taken me years to unlearn things I learned in school. I used to write introduction paragraphs first. I used to reference the thesaurus. I used to drink eight cokes a day. Those were easy enough to fix. But the most damaging thing school taught me was the “Herculean

Surprises generate smiles.

Surprises generate smiles.

Catchy music is catchy because it’s predictable. We tap our feet to the beat as our brains guess upcoming notes. Then, we click Next. If the song doesn’t surprise us, monotony sets in. The best musicians, writers, speakers, and conversationalists surprise us. They don’t describe villages as

Shared Lyft to Dunkin’ Donuts

Shared Lyft to Dunkin’ Donuts

I left Andy’s house at 4:30am to catch the first leg of my ATL-LAX-CAN-PNH journey. I ordered a shared Lyft, hoping somebody else would also be heading to the airport that early. When the car showed up, a woman and her kindergarten-aged son were in the backseat. The

Pascal’s Scam

Pascal’s Scam

Bertrand Russell imagined what he’d say if he found himself on the wrong side of Pascal’s Wager: “But Lord, you did not give us enough evidence!”1 Pascal’s Wager uses the weight of infinite hell to distract from the fact that the odds of God’s existence

New one-mile PR

New one-mile PR

There’s a homeless tent encampment surrounding the SF DMV at the far east end of the Panhandle. It’s where I started my run yesterday. Through the park, into Golden Gate, past the conservatory, and to the first bridge is 1.5 miles. I turned around at the bridge,

Personality is the force majeure of the internet.

Personality is the force majeure of the internet.

I follow @shl on Twitter, but not @gumroad; @elonmusk, but not @Tesla; @sm, but not @Winnie. I pointed this out to Sahil. He said, “funny because I write both accounts :)”1 Personality is the force majeure of the internet. When I used to travel, I’d skim through the USA

“All You Need To Know”

“All You Need To Know”

Last night, as we waited outside for the table ahead of us to finish dessert and pay, the hostess walked out with two glasses of champagne. “I’m sorry we’re running behind,” she said. Elizabeth and I clinked glasses. Back in the kitchen, we heard the hostess complaining to

Birds, Planes, And COVID’s Chokepoint

Birds, Planes, And COVID’s Chokepoint

On January 22, 1970, a Pan Am Boeing 747 touched down at Heathrow for the first time.1 It was the 747’s first commercial flight. At the time, British Airways had 11 of the jumbo jets on order. I’ve always wanted to ride on one. I’m too

Don’t Judge a Substack By Its Cover

Don’t Judge a Substack By Its Cover

Medium was beautiful when it first launched. The WYSIWYG editor blew my mind. Ads didn’t cover the first three paragraphs. It’s where all the cool kids published. Reading an article on Medium felt like getting an email from an @gmail.com address in 2004. “This person must know

Timezones, power-ranked: Mountain, Central, Pacific, Eastern

Timezones, power-ranked: Mountain, Central, Pacific, Eastern

I’ve now lived in all four continental US time zones. Where I wake up impacts my routine. Central Time has been driving this week’s zen. Easy to wake up at 6:30am, easy to take a mid-day break, easy to hit all my daily process goals. Here’s

Restaurant Revenue and Goodhart’s Law

Restaurant Revenue and Goodhart’s Law

When we moved to Ketchum two winters ago, Elizabeth got a job waitressing at a little eight-table local restaurant. The walls were still blank on her first day of work. They’d only been serving guests for a week. January 2019 marked the restaurant’s first full month of pumping

Long email signatures

Long email signatures

I was wrong to think I needed to appear buttoned-up online. When I was a teenager, I had a personal website with an About Me page. It read like I’d built a compiler for PHP, sold two companies, and achieved alpha day trading. My email signature was five lines

The High-Frequency-Trading Of News

The High-Frequency-Trading Of News

If Bush had given his famous bullhorn speech in 2020, I’m not sure I’d have seen it. I’d have likely seen a little clip of the end, when he puts his arm around the fireman and says, “The people who knocked these buildings down will hear all

Google blew a ten-year lead.

Google blew a ten-year lead.

Back when there were rumors of Google building an operating system, I thought “Lol.” Then I watched then-PM Sundar Pichai announce Chrome OS. My heart raced. It was perfect. I got my email through Gmail, I wrote documents on Docs, I listened to Pandora, I viewed photos on TheFacebook. Why

Picky Eaters, Philanderers, and Hamlet

Picky Eaters, Philanderers, and Hamlet

Yesterday on Twitter, Andrew Wilkinson asked why anyone would optimize for something other than personal and family happiness.1 Leah Culver responded that she at least wants to make an impact and contribute to society. And then, in an Internet rarity, she said “Maybe it’s really good for society

Birmingham’s Original Sin

Birmingham’s Original Sin

Last Monday, I wrote down a bunch of potential blog topics: Deleting Twitter off my phone. How meritocracy is like free will: better to believe it isn’t an illusion. Taking noon-2pm off each day. Remote culture. Perception of time. The cult of Ayn Rand. “I want to know where

The coffee doesn’t taste any good.

The coffee doesn’t taste any good.

Back in February, I had a routine. My light alarm would turn on. I’d chug some water, put on my shoes, and head outside. There wouldn’t be cars on the road yet. I’d watch the sun rise somewhere around Van Ness. After 2.7 miles, I’d

I Am Nothing and Also Something

I Am Nothing and Also Something

Most of my friends growing up had the same hair style: long bangs, swiped across the forehead. The style is often paired with boat shoes, Costa Del Mars, and golf shirts. Brodie Croyle and John Parker Wilson both have vintage “Southern Swoops.” I have a version of the swoop. Like

Stay, leave, or create a hacker house?

Stay, leave, or create a hacker house?

We moved to SF in October. After 18 months of lugging my Osprey around, I wanted an office to walk into and a coffee shop to meet new friends in. Industrious is now closed. Bean Bag is closed. So much for having an office and meeting new people. Our one

Late

Late

I feel like I’ve been late to everything in life. I was late to learn to talk. Late to walk. Late to start kindergarten. Late to learn phonics. Late to read Harry Potter. Late to get an Xbox. Late to black out. Late to choose a major. Late to

What if I run out of things to say?

What if I run out of things to say?

Michael Arndt wrote the script for Little Miss Sunshine in three days in May of 2000. He didn’t think the movie would get made. “Just too small and indie.” Seven years later, he gave an acceptance speech at the Academy Awards for “Best Original Screenplay.” In an interview, Arndt

Patio11’s Law

Patio11’s Law

@mmcgrana: Patio11’s Law: The software economy is bigger than you think, even when you take into account Patio11’s Law.1 A few years ago, I woke up in Sunriver, OR, and went to make coffee. The house had one of those bed-and-breakfast-type coffee trays. Drip machine. A stack

The “Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t” Fallacy

The “Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t” Fallacy

Is there a term for a problem that is exacerbated by its solution? A couple years ago, I got into an argument with a friend about a carpooling company. “I like the mission of reducing the number of cars on the road,” he said. I think making carpooling easier is

I was tricked into thinking I had “grit”

I was tricked into thinking I had “grit”

I was tricked into thinking I had tons of grit as a student. I worked hard in school. I put in long hours. I stayed up all night reading and preparing for debate topics, doing homework, writing essays. It was easy for me to burn the midnight oil. I enjoy

Shaving and being human

Shaving and being human

In Slaughterhouse-Five, Billy is captured during the Battle Of The Bulge. Billy is a worthless soldier. He doesn’t like war and refuses to fight. He’s always aloof. He wears an oversized, makeshift robe instead of a uniform. He doesn’t carry a knife or a gun. Before being

Seatbelts and falling out of a Ford station wagon

Seatbelts and falling out of a Ford station wagon

My great-uncle (and middle-name-sake) lived on a farm in Virginia. He was a dairy farmer. He also collected cars. 240 trucks and 60 cars to be approximate. Here’s a dust-covered Mercury and a Cobra: Where have all the car designers gone? The Ford Cobra My family iMessage (activity soaring

Charlie Munger is slowly warming up to Elon Musk

Charlie Munger is slowly warming up to Elon Musk

2016 Berkshire Shareholder Meeting: Audience: “Charlie, one of my favorite quotes by you, is you want to hire the guy with an IQ of 130 who thinks it’s 120, and the guy with an IQ of 150 who thinks it’s 170 will just kill you.” Charlie, without pause:

Running, one year apart

Running, one year apart

On April 4th of last year, we drove down to the St. Luke’s Outpatient Clinic in Hailey and the doctor sawed my cast off. I had my arm back! I could type again! A few days later, I started jogging every morning with Elizabeth. We’d leave our apartment

Fruit flies and climate change

Fruit flies and climate change

I tried to make Water Kefir a few months ago. It was meh. There weren’t so many bubbles. It tasted like vinegary water. I spilled sugar over the counter. There were lots of fruit flies swarming around. I got sick of the daily morning feedings and stopped after a

Bill’s Guide To Bread

Bill’s Guide To Bread

A couple years ago, Elizabeth gave me a copy of Flour, Water, Salt, Yeast. I ordered the recommended 12 quart Cambro tub, kitchen scale, and thermometer. I weighed my flour down to the gram and stressed about the ambient temperature of our kitchen. In the end, it worked. I baked

Narrow band of intelligence

Narrow band of intelligence

There’s a meme in society that geniuses exist, popping out brilliant and ruminating about patterns from birth. Society generally believes there’s smart people and dumb people and a wide spectrum of intelligence in between. But I think intelligence delta in humans is minuscule and barely (if even at

Learning to love (monitors) again

Learning to love (monitors) again

In July of 2018, I sold everything in my apartment. “Goodbye, Things” to the Ikea desk, bed, and dresser. Goodbye to the lounge chairs, kitchen table, and all the books on the bookshelf. I even sold my Apple Cinema Display. I’d had this glorious piece of metal and glass

“Hey Alexa, Pause The Economy”

“Hey Alexa, Pause The Economy”

Elizabeth and I were FaceTiming with Jane. She asked how we were doing. We’re fine. We came to Whistler at the beginning of last week. Instead of flying back to SF on Sunday, we decided to stay. A lot has changed since last week, and snow-capped Blackcomb is a

Whistler

Whistler

Thoughts, stories and ideas.

~2,412 people in the U.S. have SARS-CoV-2 (as of 3/5/2020)

~2,412 people in the U.S. have SARS-CoV-2 (as of 3/5/2020)

South Korea is doing the best job testing for COVID-19. They haven’t shut down internal migration like China (which leads to undiagnosed patients stuck inside apartments) and they’re offering exams in clinics and drivethroughs. They’ve tested 140,000 people, resulting in 5,766 detected cases and 3

Working from home

Working from home

Per Square’s new COVID-19 policy, Elizabeth is working from home today. She’ll likely be working from home for about a month. I did this for over 5 years. I don’t miss it. It’s nice to eat leftovers out of the fridge and it’s nice avoiding

Almost out of stock

Almost out of stock

After our 5am flight landed in Salt Lake City this morning, we headed into Industrious downtown for the wifi and coffee. An array of just-add-water Milk Labs oatmeal cups were spread out on the counter. The almond flavor is my favorite. I decided to grab an extra cup for tomorrow

The more “important,” the more engaging

The more “important,” the more engaging

In 2011, I went to the Verizon store to swap my AT&T iPhone 4 for a Verizon iPhone 4. The sales person got pushy. “But did you know this Motorola has a better camera? It has a swappable battery! It’s cheaper and easier to use.” He pitched me

Trekking in Kyrgyzstan

Trekking in Kyrgyzstan

A year ago, I couldn’t have spelled Kyrgyzstan. Yet on June 14th, I was on a Boeing 737, flying overnight from Moscow to Osh. The Aeroflot-provided dinner was much better than YouTube reviewers made me fear. It was still dark when I touched down. I switched Airplane mode off.

Being prolific

Being prolific

A group of teens in Maryland is sharing one Instagram account in order to confuse Facebook’s ad targeting. By browsing and posting from different phones in different places, Instagram can’t figure out what ads or interests to show in the Discover tab. Prolificacy is the reaction to the

Constraints breed more than creativity

Constraints breed more than creativity

Every October in college, I had to go to the “Idea Fest” in Louisville. I always dreaded getting on the bus and missing out on a weekend on campus. But Philippe Petit was there one year to talk about life on a tightrope. Joseph Gordon-Levitt ended up playing him in

Will negative interest rates lead to Marxism?

Will negative interest rates lead to Marxism?

I got into an email exchange with TP from Shit I Didn’t Know about declining interest rates. I’ve recently been thinking about this chart of declining interest rates over time: Chart by Paul Schmelzing at the Bank Of England 1. Why is it consistently declining? Probably a combination

Cocktail Party Entrepreneurs

Cocktail Party Entrepreneurs

I’ve been sick the last few days, hence the dry riverbed of blog posts. I’m still not 100%, but feeling better. Thankfully I don’t have coronavirus. Just being within one BART ride of SFO gives this amateur hypochondriac all the fuel I need. I’ve been thinking

“I Exist”

“I Exist”

Years ago, Sarah Silverman went on the Howard Stern Show. After chatting about comedy for a while, they started taking listener calls. One of the callers who made it live onto the air started cussing Sarah out. “Whoa whoa whoa, I’m hanging up” Howard said. Just before the line

Bars need competition in order to get crowds

Bars need competition in order to get crowds

In Nashville, when I was in college, there was a bar across the street from a bunch of dorms. I can’t remember its name. It constantly changed names. It kept failing. After a new owner hung a new neon sign out front, the bar’s manager tried hard to

Organizing my thoughts

Organizing my thoughts

When I sit down in front of my laptop, I’ll start upgrading our Stripe integration for Bottle to comply with new EU/CA regulations. And then I’ll get pulled into fixing something with the checkout flow. Then I’ll start thinking about our scheduled action architecture. Then I’

F-150 Mile Equivalents, “FME’s”

F-150 Mile Equivalents, “FME’s”

Americans bought 909,330 F-150’s last year, which is more than the number of Silverado’s (585k), Camry’s (343k), or RAV4’s (427k). They outsold everything. When a gallon of gas is burned, approximately 20.1 pounds of CO2 are emitted into the air. That’s 9,117

“The average American changes their healthcare plan every 2.7 years.”

“The average American changes their healthcare plan every 2.7 years.”

An obvious incentive design flaw. I was having tea with the founder of a preventative healthcare app. It helps people get flu shots on time, sync genetic info to improve diets, monitor Apple Watch data for irregular heartbeats, etc. It keeps upcoming should-do’s organized in one place He thought

“How did the human cross the road?”

“How did the human cross the road?”

I cross 31 crosswalks on my way to work every morning. There’s a four-stop at Steiner and Ellis. This morning, a white Ford Explorer came in hot to the stop sign before slamming its brakes. We made eye contact. He paused. Then I took my eyes off of him,

From Idaho to Mars

From Idaho to Mars

2,402 people live in St. Maries, ID. The Lumberjack is the mascot of the lone public high school. Tom Mueller grew up there, about a hundred miles from the Canadian border, surrounded by wilderness and chainsaws. But Tom also spent a lot of time looking up at space. His

Union Square

Union Square

Andy and I sit down on a bench in Union Square. Spots are hard to come by. The man and woman to our left are eating lunches out of to-go boxes. Everyone to our right is tapping on their iPhone. Dozens of dogs are running around in the pen behind

“It’s Vulnerability, Stupid”

“It’s Vulnerability, Stupid”

Vulnerability is my favorite quality.1 I struggle to be vulnerable. I’ll catch myself journaling as if my great-great-grandson is deriving the meaning of life from my words, writing in a way so as to appear “strong” and “clear-minded.” How laughable. Why is it that I struggle to write

Just enough to get into trouble, not enough to avoid disaster

Just enough to get into trouble, not enough to avoid disaster

Suman and I were in the back room1 of a wine shop on Friday. Alex, the owner of the shop and the founder of Subject To Change natural wines, was pouring glasses and explaining the story behind each label. He explained how for a wine to be “Double Zero Wine”

Side hustle

Side hustle

I was having coffee yesterday with a freelance marketer at Joe & The Juice on Montgomery St. She’s lived in SF for 25 years. Her side hustle is giving chocolate tours on the weekend through a touring agency.1 It reminded me of when I moved to Chicago. I was

It’s too late to collect sand

It’s too late to collect sand

When I was 13, my family went to California. We walked along a beach near Mendocino. I’d never seen black sand before. I wanted to bring some home. So I got a ziplock bag from my mom, scooped some sand into it, and put it in my backpack. When

Everybody already knows

Everybody already knows

When I came across the image I sent out to Second Breakfast the other day, I thought it was a cool depiction of how cars and people are incompatible. After taking it in, I also thought to myself that it wasn’t very novel. “Everybody’s probably already seen this.

“Down” Market

“Down” Market

We got into an argument the other night about whether you should say “Go Up Market” or “Go Down Market” when telling someone to go down Market in the direction of this arrow: I think (despite the fact the street numbers are ascending from 1st to 10th) the proper verbiage

“It’s Voluntary”

“It’s Voluntary”

Napoleon has expelled Snowball from Animal Farm with his pack of fierce dogs, leaving himself as the Leader. The windmill that the mules and horses and sheep have built stone by stone over the course of a year has been blown over by a tremendous storm. Fall is fast approaching.

Inventions are memes

Inventions are memes

Richard Dawkins, in The Selfish Gene, referred to cultural norms that get imitated and spread as “memes.”1 Cultural memes - such as how we gather for Thanksgiving, the Happy Birthday song, how we drink and greet each other and mourn together - are similar to our biological genes: the

“I’ll finish that tonight.”

“I’ll finish that tonight.”

I seem to get done exactly what I need or want to finish whether or not I have a deadline. But when there’s a deadline, I get things done sooner. At 3pm yesterday, sitting in Industrious, I thought to myself, “It’s okay the day is running out, I

AIM and Identity

AIM and Identity

My AIM username was scribbler. My Xbox username was scribbler. So was my email. And my Facebook ID. And my Kazaa. I liked having a unifying name across all services. Nowadays, kids not only have different usernames for Snapchat and Instagram and Twitter and TikTok, but most kids have multiple

Annualized expenses.

Annualized expenses.

Car dealers try to sell you a car for “just $225/month.” The company Lemonade sells you renter’s insurance for “only $0.25 a day.” But when you’re offered a job, they tell you your annual salary. Instead, expenses should be annualized and income should be accounted for

Cigarettes, scotch, company, writing, and conversation

Cigarettes, scotch, company, writing, and conversation

The day Christopher Hitchens died, his longtime editor and friend at the Vanity Fair posted an In Memoriam. “He was a man of insatiable appetites—for cigarettes, for scotch, for company, for great writing, and, above all, for conversation.” That sentence nails it. I don’t care for cigarettes or

Hitchens in North Beach

Hitchens in North Beach

He Knew He Was Right, The New Yorker, 2006: At a dinner a few months ago in San Francisco with his wife, Carol Blue, and some others, Hitchens wore a pale jacket and a shirt unbuttoned far enough to hint at what one ex-girlfriend has called “the pelt of the

E-commerce and iCommerce

E-commerce and iCommerce

E-commerce is like Michael Jordan when he played for the wizards. Sport-defining. Dominant. But increasingly average in a world of quicker, stronger Kobe’s. E-commerce was our first attempt at digitizing the store. We took pictures of all the products in Wal-mart and stocked the internet’s infinite

The Efficient Market Hypothesis and equities

The Efficient Market Hypothesis and equities

Three articles from the past three weeks: * Bridgewater Makes $1.5 Billion Options Bet on Falling Market (WSJ, November 2019) * Investors Bail on Stock Market Rally, Fleeing Funds at Record Pace (WSJ, November 2019) * Warren Buffett’s company is sitting on $122 billion in cash, which could be a

Fermentation Station

Fermentation Station

The big tub on the left is two loaves worth of sourdough. It’s been fermenting overnight. The little tub above it is a branch of my brother’s sourdough culture. The big jar on the right is brown sugar-water with water kefir grains in it. They’ve been rehydrating

Where Are The Engineer’s Mansions?

Where Are The Engineer’s Mansions?

When searching for our apartment, I met three different property managers. One was driving an Audi, the other two were driving BMW’s. We need Fred Schwed to write a sequel to Where Are The Customer’s Yachts? All economic gains seem to be flowing to landlords. Ridiculously favorable tax

Day 1

Day 1

One of Bezos’ lines is “it’s day 1.” How is the third most valuable company in the world, with over 50% of all e-commerce traffic servicing over half of all product searches, still “in the early days”? Early adopters think “it’s too late” (imagine Bill Gates reading the

Munger, on Trump

Munger, on Trump

Munger: “Don’t expect too much of human nature. I have a rule for politicians — it’s a stoic rule. I always reflect that they are never so bad you don’t live to want them back.” He describes the scene in California when he first arrived LA: lawyers, insurance

Click

Click

I used to associate a “click” sound with clicking links on the web. I remember sitting in the MBHS library, in one of those dorm-room-like wooden lean-back chairs, in front of a Dell machine running Windows. We’d be playing Wikipedia races, clicking blue link to blue link to blue

This morning I was walking down Divisadero.

This morning I was walking down Divisadero.

This morning I was walking down Divisadero. “I’ve battled crashing servers in that Starbucks,” I thought to myself. There are lots of places where I’ve frantically tapped my keyboard, cursing myself, wondering why I’m such a bad developer: * The upstairs bedroom of a shared Airbnb in Boise

Google Search Is Dead (8 years later)

Google Search Is Dead (8 years later)

8 years ago I wrote a blog post on Jirnil, (a little Medium-esque app I’d built while interning for the FCC) titled: “Google Search Is Dead”. RageChill had been getting popular. To track usage and commentary, I’d type in “ragechill” into Chrome and hit enter. I got the

Streaks

Streaks

The streak of my water+pushups+walking morning routine is addicting. When the streak is alive, it’s like walking downhill. But the moment I miss a day, it’s easy to think that I have to run uphill in order to make up for the lost time. Sometimes I

Shh

Shh

This morning, walking up Sansome, I was in the middle of a pack of people. Some popping out of BART, some waiting for their robot-poured lattes, others walking briskly - with jackets, backpacks, earpods. Despite the omnidirectional traffic, crowded sidewalks, filled streets and morning vendors, des

“When a supernova explodes, the blast wave creates high-energy particles that scatter in every direction; scientists believe there is a minute chance that one of the errant particles known, as a cosmic ray, can hit a computer chip on Earth, flipping a

“When a supernova explodes, the blast wave creates high-energy particles that scatter in every direction; scientists believe there is a minute chance that one of the errant particles known, as a cosmic ray, can hit a computer chip on Earth, flipping a

“When a supernova explodes, the blast wave creates high-energy particles that scatter in every direction; scientists believe there is a minute chance that one of the errant particles known, as a cosmic ray, can hit a computer chip on Earth, flipping a 0 to a 1.” James Somers in The

Sitting

Sitting

My Uber driver Jacky picked me up at 4:06 AM this morning. I landed in Denver at 8:30 AM mountain time. I didn’t get my full 8 hours of beauty rest last night. With each passing year, it seems sleep deficits affect me more and more. But

Why isn’t the trade war a bipartisan issue?

Why isn’t the trade war a bipartisan issue?

Globalization has caused the “giant sucking sound” of jobs Perot predicted. The cause may be equal parts cheap labor and automation. But the effects are obvious: 1. the decline of the industrial Midwest, 2. the amount of carbon emissions resulting from globalization, and 3. the failure of the CCP to

“All The News That’s Fit To Print”

“All The News That’s Fit To Print”

“Remember, remember, the 5th of November.” I know they used to hang traitors in England. But high school history didn’t cover the official punishment for treason: “Hanged, Drawn and Quartered.” Wikipedia has an article on how attitudes in England shifted away from such barbaric punishments. TLDR: c

Language

Language

Tyler and I were sitting in a diner in Nashville. He took a sip of his coffee and said, “language is consciousness. If we don’t have the words to describe something, we can’t experience it.” Being good semi-erudites, we commented how French people use big and impressive words

Ketchum

Ketchum

There were a lot of peaks over the past year.1 But the highest peak, metaphorically and physically, was Bald Mountain in Ketchum. Last year, as Elizabeth was traveling through Asia and New Zealand, I decided this was my chance to spend a winter in a ski town. I found

“10 Simple Truths”

“10 Simple Truths”

@naval put together a list of 10 simple truths tweeted by others, which I found interesting. 1. if the news are fake imagine history @AmuseChimp 2. Human life is gradually turning from a struggle against suffering into a struggle against pleasure. @G_S_Bhogal 3. If you don’t want

Morgantown to Pittsburgh

Morgantown to Pittsburgh

This morning, I woke up at 5:30am to pack my Osprey Farpoint1 and brush my teeth. I then rode with Scott about 5 minutes down the road to the ride share carpark. A couple minutes later, Jonathan rolled up and we swapped Hondas. It was pitch black outside, and

Just Walk Out

Just Walk Out

When I got off the train and walked into the main terminal at Ogilvie Center, there was an Amazon Go right at the corner. I had to try it. So I hopped on their free wifi, downloaded the Amazon Go app, scanned my barcode, walked in. The app would tell

The Destruction Index

The Destruction Index

In an Atlantic profile of Sam Altman, he is quoted as saying, “Democracy only works in a growing economy. Without a return to economic growth, the democratic experiment will fail. And I have to think that YC is hugely important to that growth.” I agree with the premise. But I

Guns, Germs and Sweat

Guns, Germs and Sweat

I find it hard to focus on computer scripts when I’m sweating through my t-shirt. While it doesn’t get mentioned in Guns Germs and Steel, I wonder how much an impact the heat has on progress. It’s certainly harder to focus and harder to think (for me,

Surfing and coffee

Surfing and coffee

This morning after breakfast, Elizabeth and I rode our Scoopy down to Echo beach. I dropped her off for her surf lesson, then took the bike a few hundred meters up the road to The Slow, a beautifully architected cafe. I worked and read A Philosophy Of Software Design. The

Turtles, All The Way Down

Turtles, All The Way Down

From The Gene: In a famous story, a medieval cosmologist is asked what holds the earth up. “Turtles,” he says. “And what holds up the turtles?” he is asked. “More turtles.” “And those turtles?” “You don’t understand.” The cosmologist stamps his foot. “It’s turtles all the way.” When

Chicago

Chicago

Thoughts, stories and ideas.

Fall, Winter, Summer

Fall, Winter, Summer

I woke up at 5am this morning to fly from Atlanta to Chicago. The next time I’ll sleep in a bed is two and a half days from now - Sunday night. Andy and I took a Lyft to the airport. I’m flying ATL to MDW, where I’

“The demand curve slopes downward”

“The demand curve slopes downward”

[NOTE May 2020] My view of Bitcoin specifically has shifted considerably since this post. I do think the demand curve slopes downward for non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, though. Some people think of Bitcoin as a Giffen Good.1 The more expensive it becomes, the more in demand it becomes. Sort of like

The end of status

The end of status

Instagram might be the downfall of “status”. Anybody can upload airbrushed selfies. Anybody can post pictures from the gym or from the new breakfast spot or from a stage at Lollapalooza. If you can edit pictures and photoshop your life and make Everything Look Amazing and blah blah blah, then

Boundaries

Boundaries

Sam Harris asked Yuval Noah Harari about how he is able as a professor of history to draw on biology and chemistry and sociology while writing Sapiens. “I’m interested in questions, and questions don’t have boundaries,” he said. It’s simple and it’s obvious. We use problems

Birds and buses to BHM

Birds and buses to BHM

Last week, I left Industrious and walked out onto Peachtree St. There were four Limes sitting on the sidewalk. I opened up the app, scanned a scooter, and started riding down the street. The trip took me from Midtown to the core of Atlanta. I was surrounded by tall buildings

Tesla

Tesla

“He needs to get off Twitter.” “Why doesn’t he hire someone to watch what he says?” “He shouldn’t have taken a puff on Joe Rogan’s podcast.” I’ve long believed Elon Musk has taken the Donald Trump approach to Twitter. Tesla is constantly in the news. Sometimes

Slow

Slow

Moving slowly is a feature, not a bug. Things often go sideways when humans take things that should take a long time, and package them into condensed dosages. * Clash Of Clans instead of chess. * Fireball shots instead of martinis. * Soul Cycle instead of a Saturday morning bike ride. * Instag

Steve Martin

Steve Martin

Last week, Sarah Silverman and Howard Stern were discussing Steve Martin’s brilliant wit.1 Sarah proceeded to share a story about Steve. One year, she helped to host an AFI honors ceremony. After the awards show, she went to an afterparty at Steve’s house. The idea was to

7,830 miles

7,830 miles

I landed in San Francisco this morning. It was chilly outside. After spending 5 weeks in 100-degree weather, I needed a sweater. As I walked to Uniqlo, I passed this sign. It’s 7,830 miles back to where I came from, back to where Elizabeth started her SE Asia

Scrolling and scrolling and scrolling

Scrolling and scrolling and scrolling

The current US-based opinion of Facebook is that it’s on the decline. The narrative seems to be that 1) less people are using it; and 2) the people who do use it are using it less. Traveling, though, has convinced me that Facebook is stronger than ever. When I

Mr. Singh

Mr. Singh

Near the end of this yellow brick road and tucked to the left is the Hangover Hostel. When you walk up, there are a few chairs on the patio. Mr. Singh was sitting in one of them. “Elizabeth?” He asked before we could say Hello. “Yes!” “Welcome.” He made copies

Not Pictured

Not Pictured

📍 Koh Phi Phi, Thailand Not Pictured: * 38°C Real Feel temperature * Intermittent internet * Calvin Harris blasting in the background * Instant coffee * Three employees sanding down wooden tables off to the right

Goodbye, Pai

Goodbye, Pai

Every traveler that comes to Pai ends up extending their visit. People come here and decide they never want to leave. An Australian we met back in Laos decided she was going to move to Pai for 6 months starting in 2019. It’s easy to see why. It’s

Around the world in 80 hostels

Around the world in 80 hostels

One of the most fun aspects of our trip has been meeting people from other countries around the world. Last night, Elizabeth went out with a group of friends she’d made. Some Dutch, some Brits, some Canadians. Some people from Brazil and Italy. This morning, we went to breakfast

Motorbiking in Pai

Motorbiking in Pai

Renting a motorbike has been an amazing way to see the country and travel with different groups of people. For $17, we’ve had a motorbike for three days (including gas!). We’ve overcome our fear following the stitches. We biked over to the White Buddha temple overlooking Pai with

Big blue dog

Big blue dog

“It’s all in the angle,” they say.

Monk Chats

Monk Chats

Yesterday, we met Lo at the Wat Chedi Luang monk chat table. Every day after school, from ~2pm-6pm, Lo talks to tourists. He does it to practice his English. The tourists do it to learn more about Buddhism and life as a monk. He was able to hold a conversation

“I did Chiang Mai” Pet Peeve

“I did Chiang Mai” Pet Peeve

We were sharing a beer with other backpackers last night at the hostel next door. I noticed us saying, “We did Luang Namtha and Luang Prabang and blah blah,” and then they would say, “Oh I’ve done Laos, and we did Siem Reap in Cambodia.” As if staying in

Mental Model: Chokepoints

Mental Model: Chokepoints

Chokepoints cause a concentration of qualities. For example, in both Britain and Denmark, birds have been under attack by asphalt. Meanwhile, birdfeeders have become popular in Britain but they have not caught on in Denmark. As a result, the beaks of British birds have become 1-2mm longer than Dutc

Hiking to Nalan, a remote ethnic hill tribe.

Hiking to Nalan, a remote ethnic hill tribe.

From Luang Namtha in Northern Laos, it takes a full day to reach Nalan. It’s an ethnic minority village in the middle of the Nam Ha National Park. 180 people live in the village. They are rice farmers. There is no internet, no cell service, and no electricity except

Things I wish existed while I’ve been traveling

Things I wish existed while I’ve been traveling

1. A simple mapping app where people who have lived in a city can quickly add hotel recommendations, local restaurants, things to do, and easily mark them as day activities, night activities, touristy, local, etc. You could then browse the app by choosing somebody you trust, and viewing their map.

The “Roadside Motel” Bill

The “Roadside Motel” Bill

Elizabeth and I were watching Ken Burns’ documentary on the Vietnam War as we weaved our way through the backcountry of Laos. In 1973, Henry Kissinger negotiated the Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam, a peace treaty meant to end the war in SE Asia. But

Province Tax

Province Tax

We were eating dinner at Viman in Vang Vieng. The owner is a German-born Thai expat living in Vang Vieng, Laos. He was explaining how the woman who cooked our food had to pay the government every month a “Province Tax.” Since she was born in Vientiane, but now lived

“The bridge is broken”

“The bridge is broken”

By 2020, the Laos government has promised to bring electricity to all of its citizens. Based on the quality of the roads, it’s hard to believe they’ll pull it off. It took me and Elizabeth 12 hours to go about 120km from Vang Vieng to Nong Kiaw. 1.

Driving in Laos

Driving in Laos

This is what the main highway between Luang Prabang and Vang Vieng looks like. Part of it is paved. Part of it is gravel. Part is mud. The potholes don’t discriminate between any of the three. The infrastructure seems to be the biggest difference between Laos and Cambodia thus

Exploring Vang Vieng, Laos

Exploring Vang Vieng, Laos

A rest area halfway up Pha Ngeun. From the top of Pha Ngeun, outside of Vang Vieng. Biking after our hike. Our dune buggy adventure to the lagoons. Blue Lagoon 3.

Munger, Wal-mart, and Louis C.K.

Munger, Wal-mart, and Louis C.K.

Charlie Munger gave a talk at USC in 1994 about worldly wisdom. In it, he takes a contrarian (at least contrarian among the elite) view of Wal-mart: You can say, “Is this a nice way to behave?” Well, capitalism is a pretty brutal place. But I personally think that the

Stitches

Stitches

This is the bed where Elizabeth got three stitches put in her right hand. This bed’s in the Luang Prabang Regional Hospital ER. When we woke up earlier that morning, we decided to go to the Kuang Si waterfall, just outside of Luang Prabang. It’s supposed to be

Great leaders speak plainly

Great leaders speak plainly

The best leaders are direct. They trim conjunctions and four-syllable words from their sentences. Conversely, those fluent in corporate-speak are so concerned with saying everything that they end up saying nothing. I saw both of these snippets from different press releases within the last 24 hours

Consistency Is Underrated

Consistency Is Underrated

Fred Wilson has written a blog post every single day since 2003.1 That’s at least 5,000 posts. Without skipping a beat. Doing stuff (n) < Doing stuff well (2n) < Doing stuff well, consistently (2n)^2 1. AVC↩

How, Cambodia?

How, Cambodia?

Cambodia is the most impressive country I can remember traveling to. Just one and a half generations ago, the Cambodian people were suffering under the regressive communist government of Pol Pot. Within four years, Pol Pot’s regime systematically murdered nearly 3 million people. “Better to kill an

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Markets are efficient thanks to the people who think they aren’t efficient. It’s a paradox. This simple tension is true in a lot of different domains. When we think we’re providing a bad customer experience at Bottle, we start sending emails at 2am and start setting up

Seattle

Seattle

Thoughts, stories and ideas.

“Side Effects May Include”

“Side Effects May Include”

We should treat laws passed by Congress the way we treat pills prescribed by doctors. Each bill should come with a section of potential side effects. “This regulation may cause…” What goes on the law’s warning label should also be debated, pros and cons included. Lawmakers can attach their

Anti-Bike-Shedding

Anti-Bike-Shedding

“One of the first interesting experiences I had in this project at Princeton was meeting great men. I had never met very many great men before. But there was an evaluation committee that had to try to help us along, and help us ultimately decide which way we were going

Enthusiasm

Enthusiasm

I’ve written before about how enthusiasm is my favorite quality in others. It’s what pulls me closer to people. Here, a student describes Richard Feynman’s enthusiasm: I remember when I was his student how it was when you walked into one of his lectures. He would be

Fewer people moving and taking risks

Fewer people moving and taking risks

Here are two surprising facts: the number of people who have moved across state lines is down 51% since the mid-20th century; the number of business owners under the age of 30 is down 65% since the 1980’s.1 Watch the news and you’d get a different impression.

Sourdough, June 2018 Vintage

Sourdough, June 2018 Vintage

My first levain sourdough loaf. It’s the hybrid Pan de Campagne from from Ken Forkish’s book Flour Water Salt Yeast. I started fermenting the sourdough culture on June 20th. I mixed the first dough on June 25th. That dough went into the oven in the morning of June

“Can you imagine?”

“Can you imagine?”

Seinfeld, on life. This is my favorite story about show business. Glenn Miller’s orchestra, they were doing some gig somewhere, they can’t land where they’re supposed to land because it’s winter, a snowy night. So they have to land in this field and walk to the

The Wall, The Crawl, and the Courtyard

The Wall, The Crawl, and the Courtyard

“My son, my loyal and affectionate boy, some day it may be yours to know the pain, the unreasonable pain that comes over a man to know that between him and his boy, and his boy’s friends, an unseen but unassailable barrier has arisen, erected by no human agency;

“Yeah, no, […]

“Yeah, no, […]

What does it mean? Where did it come from? Why have we all adopted it as a conversational tic?

On Leaving Cities

On Leaving Cities

Elizabeth texted me last week, “I’m sad we don’t have much more time here, there are so many things I want to do.” A major benefit of leaving a city is it forces you to do the things you’ve been putting off until “some other day.” When

Unknown knowns1 and the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect

Unknown knowns1 and the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect

When I read the news, I accept everything as it’s written as fact. I soak up geopolitics and stock analysis, questioning nothing until I encounter an article about Net Neutrality. And then I shake my head, because the article is egregiously wrong. The article will lack nuance or, worse,

Users hate software.

Users hate software.

“This is going to be really painful, and in the end, it’s not going to work.” 1 -Every user everywhere when they sign up for a new service. 1. Paul Graham’s words from an interview.↩

Stories, by Steven Pinker

Stories, by Steven Pinker

I am fascinated by Steven Pinker’s example of how humans remember things1. Our brain can hold only about six bits of information in our working memory at once. M D P H D R S V P C E O I H O P How many of those letters

Greg LeMond

Greg LeMond

“It never gets easier, you just get faster.” There is something inspirational in knowing that Greg LeMond also sweats his face off when he bikes for an hour. The main difference between me and him is that when he bikes for an hour, he can ride the length of an

Barren

Barren

Thoughts, stories and ideas.